Welcome back to our blog, it's been a while but we are now ready to provide you a new project to boost your profits.
Today we are going to talk about Football (Soccer), we are really passionate about soccer and we are sure it can become another stream of income to your pocket, especially when it comes to Pro-betting there are some mathematical methods that can provide you almost certain predictions without harsh calculation or computations.
We can proudly state that we find one method that can allow you to see which player, preferably an attacker or midfielder, is more likely to score during a matchday; to bet, therefore on him to score or not.
Our method is based on many mathematical and statistical assumptions and statements, the function of each of one is to tell whether or not the player is more likely to score, therefore the resulting prediction is the cumulative value of all the assumption of each player, we decided to undertake this method because when we first started our project we were trying to make every assumption fit in a single overall formula, but we soon realised that most of them would have annulled each other, for this reason we decided to consider them separated, in order to have a clearer and wider view of a player situation.
The pursuit of this method is to treat the numerical values found for each statement as dictated from the statement or assumption itself; making it easier to analyse and interpret the datas.
The assumptions for a player are the following:
The more goals he scored the more is likely to score
The higher the goal/match value is the more efficient he is and the more is likely to score
His possibility to be in the Starting XI must be at least 85% for him to be part of selection
If the player’s team is already relegated then he’s less likely to score
If he is strongly motivated (eg. Ibrahimovic) and has a strong mindset then he’s more likely to score (also if the team is facing strong opponents or is in a bad situation)
The lower the average opponents’ Goalkeeper’s vote is in the last 5/6 games then the more likely he's going to score.
The more goals the opponents’ defense conceded the more likely they are going to concede again and the more likely he is going to score
The higher the value His/Team Goals (percentage of his goals divided by the team’s) the more likely he is going to be the scorer in the team.
The higher is the sum of goals scored by the team and the goals conceded by the opponent the more is likely to score
The lower his mins per goal value is the more likely he’s going to score
The lower is the value ((nx90)+90)/(mins per goal) where n is the number of matches without scoring the more is likely to score.
If he is the first or second in the hierarchy of the penalty takers then he is more likely to score
The more penalties have been assigned against the opponent team the more he’s likely to score
The more penalties have been saved by the opponent’s keeper the less he’s likely to score
If the player has mistaken at least 1 penalty but scored at least 80% of them then he’s more likely to score the next one.
The more penalties he shot the more he’s likely to score
The more penalties his team received the more he’s likely to score
If his team is fighting for a position (1st to 4th place, 5th to 7th and 18th) the more he is likely to score (to help his team)
If the team he is playing against is already relegated then he’s more likely to score as the opponents might let play some young players
The more games he played the more he is necessary to the team and the more he’s likely to score
The higher his yield of home/total goals or away/total goals, it depends on where he plays next, the more he’s likely to score
If he scored in his last match:
The more matches in a row (N) he has been scoring the less he is likely to score
The higher his AVG sequence with goals is the more he’s likely to score
The higher the AVG Goals after N in Goal the more he’s likely to score
The more N / ASWG is high above 1 the less he’s likely to score whilst the smaller this value is the more he’s likely to score
If the Min per Goals is below 90 then he’s more likely to score
If he didn’t:
The lower his value of AVG sequence no goals the more is likely to score
The more matches in a row (N) he hasn’t been scoring the more he is likely to score, if it is less than 6 games
The closer N/ASNG is to 1 the more he’s likely to score, if it’s above 1.5 than he’s less likely to score
The higher AVG Goal after N the more he’s likely to score
If his mins per goal is below ((nx90)+90) the more he’s likely to score
At this point the player who is more likely to score is the one who has the best overall result, this can be done by comparing every value he has with the ones of the others, and the player with the best overall ranking, which can be made by summing up all his rankings, is the more likely to score.
If something isn't clear to you or want to make any suggstion don't esitate to contact us.
This is all for today.
StatsApplied.com